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Thursday, October 29, 2009

Stayed tuned for next updates
12:02 pm pdt 

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

About to leave the eye of the hurricane

I have not been commenting on a great deal
of what has been going on because, frankly I
was not getting a real feel for outcomes.

I was not happy with much of anything
concerning big picture issues. I do see some
positive work being done in a number of
areas... again not sure of "prevailing winds"
at this point.

But, I was concerned that my emotional view,
or state, was perhaps clouding my
perspectives. 

I feel I have to put my two cents worth out
there, negative emotional feelings or no. 

The way things feel to me is that it is as if
our country is caught in a hurricane, we have
made it through the storm into the eye of the 
hurricane, while we have been in the eye,
we have attempted repairs ect...

I want to add that we stated several months
ago that our forecast was that the federal gov/
Obama administration would be successful
in their efforts to stabilize the economy.
This has been accomplished.... The question
or situation now being studied/look at is how
deep or comprehensive the period of
stabilization will be, and how long will it last
before we enter into what we see as the next
unavoidable stage of the process.

So that having been said..

The way it appears to me is that the repairs
made to date are substandard, band aid,
and bailing wire variety.. "This in regards to
stimulas fund distribution..Questions here
that remain are, a.) Could this have been
done with a more efficient process that better
allocated funds? b.) Will the "repairs made
to date become self sustaining or do
unrepaired "holes" still exist that will require
remaining dollars to keep the structure
inflated? c.)  With unemployment where it is
can we really say we have put into effect
programs that will positively impact main
street to the extent that a more immediate,
and (at least temporary/transitory) recovery
will require?

The time we had gained by surviving to reach
the eye, I am concerned has been under
utilized or perhaps wasted.

(Yes I see the positives, but the serious
timelines and failure risks potentials remain.)

It "feels" like we are about to be forced out of
the eye, and back into the storm. 

I could talk about a lack of societal political
integrity, a lack of intellectual and moral
honesty, and the outcomes a society must face
when faced with the fall out from such social
evolutions....

But I think i'll stick to what "Hans Solo- said,:

('I've got a really bad feeling about this!!!)"

There is a chance that this "feeling" will change
due to new information, that if it is coming, will
arrive over the course of the next couple of 
weeks.
-----------------------------------------------------
10/27/09 So far any info that could change the
level of my concern has not yet materialized...
In fact a report just came out that has stated
that out of the past 21 months income has 
fallen for those able to find work in 16 of those
months.  
-----------------------------------------------------

From an economic stand point there are some
indicators that are contributing to my current
view. One is the continued stress being
measured and reported in the housing
ownership area.. #'s of at risk mortgages ect..

Also I'm concerned with the un-employment
data, reports indicate that our economy is
still shedding jobs and that any improvements
in the un-employment data is related to
people finally having exhausted their benefits
and then sinking from view, rather than
actually being able to find a job.

---------------------------------------------------
12/5/09 Update- Seasonal and temporary 
employment figures show signs that this
important indicator may be about to show
signs of much needed improvement in our
national unemployment figures/picture......
However, we believe we will have to wait until
we get the figures in for Feb/March to see if 
the needed "Longer Term Transitional
Variety" stabilization has truly begun. Let's
hope for the best. CSM
----------------------------------------------------
There are now reports coming in that state
that the cost of job creation under the
various stimulas programs is running as high
as $500,000.00 per job... How can this be a
sign of a sustainable effort??

My concern is that without these indicators
showing signs of improvement, how can the 
current recovery "bubble" be sustained?

Retail sales show improvement last month?
Will this be continued? How can it be
continued?

(The environmental and political problems
on the table are still there looming.)

Also internationally, past failures from 
prior Bush administration continues to show
potential of not only further economic
troubles, but the risk of conflict in many
areas growing, or starting, remains high.
 

Colin Stuart McCoy

1:02 pm pdt 


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