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Monday, March 3, 2014

The Ukraine, Russia, President Putin

Dear President Putin,

Many of your thoughts, beliefs, are well known.

Conjecture about a restoration of a political entity similar to that which existed during the days of the USSR is not realistic under the realities of current global evolutions. As to current situation in the Ukraine..

It is reasonable, as long as you go no further and damage to/or loss of human life does not further result, to expect Ukraine, NATO, The West to support long term security arrangements for Russian military bases/interests in the Crimea 

It is reasonable to, as long as you back up, and remove Russian Military operations from Ukrainian sovereign territory, to expect, Ukraine, NATO, The West to support strongly worded trade protections/access treaty's supportive of Russian export interests.

Sir, Economically Your/Russia position is the weaker one, you cannot prevail, you can only do more harm to your country than to others in both the long term, as well as short term. 

Militarily the Russian position is untenable, no chance for victory under the horrible prospects related to what will transpire if the major parties involved come into such a conflict.

You can still save face, as things stand now..but if things go much further, that will not be possible and ultimately it is projected that your own people will become frustrated with your efforts and your energies will be spent in trying to survive politically at home. 

Sincerely

Colin Stuart McCoy - The Sunrise Foundation 

Update: 3/19/14  President Putin is pushing too hard. The key to best possible outcomes and positively managed future potential lie in non-violence, dialog and diplomacy. The aggressiveness with which President Putin is pursuing his objectives will force the West and NATO to respond with not only more aggressive sanctions but resource re-allocations which will allow Russian gas exports shipped through the Ukraine to be eventually blocked, with the West, NATO then being in a better position to withstand the difficulties that would be more pronounced otherwise. President Putin fears/knows that if he allows pure self determination, conducted without the presence of Russian troops...That issues of personal freedom, and personal economic advantage will become apparent to all involved. Ukraine shifts/re-aligns with the west. His conduct, if it results in more death and property destruction will devolve into open military conflict that the west will not simply sit aside and watch. If his efforts continue, and he pushes further into eastern Ukraine, he will trigger an economic situation in which he/Russia will not benefit, will actually be seriously negatively impacted. Plus he will have created a civil war potential within the re-drawn borders. This is not an acceptable way to progress. As has been noted, Putin's behavior, negates much of the realities historic and otherwise upon which strengthens the Russian position-perspective, and paints Putin as just another petty dictator with ignorant Russian television personalities putting out ridiculous "nuclear threat" language potentials. Dangerous, distracting, unacceptable.

Update: 3/28/14 If western intelligence analysts conclude that Putin does in fact intend to invade/push further into Ukraine militarily. If the goal is to take action that will prevent this, and in so doing prevent all that would result. The U.S. and NATO, upon invitation from Ukraine, must put troops on the ground. It must be made clear that if Russia intends to invade, that the Russian military will have to go through the U.S., NATO forces..Implication being, if this is how Putin wants to play it.. It will mean war with the west. ( I am at a loss as to what Putin is trying to accomplish- to me it appears-troop build up, military supply line establishment- to be insanity personified? ) 

President Putin needs to be told, if it is concluded that the Russian military activity along the Ukrainian border is not "normal"..that said activity must cease and de-escalate or U.S., NATO Troops will begin to be deployed, upon Ukrainian invitation, along the border regions within Ukraine.

Update: 4/11/14 Russia claims Ukraine has an outstanding debt obligation for past Gas/energy shipments/discounts, in the range of approximately $34 Billion give or take..If true..and if we value Ukraine having the best chance to positively resolve all current issues with Russia.. I think the U.S. & NATO countries need to put a fair payment plan on the table that protects everyones interest, and should do so as quickly as possible. 

1:32 pm pst 


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